Trotsky in 1939 was pretty prescient -- before the battle of France, early 1940

BM-2cW67GEKkHGonXKZLCzouLLxnLym3azS8r
Sep 26 13:32 [raw]

Germany obviously pushed Moscow against Finland. Each step Moscow takes westward brings closer the involvement of the Soviet Union in the war. If this objective were gained, the world situation would change considerably. The Near and Middle East would become the arena of the war. The ques­ tion of India would arise at once. Hitler would breathe with relief and, in case of an unfavorable turn of events, gain the possibility of concluding p ea ce at the expense of the Soviet Union. Moscow undoubtedly gnashed its teeth upon reading the friendly articles in the German press. But gnashing one' s teeth is not a p olitical factor. The p act rem ains in force. And Stalin remains Hitler's satellite. The immediate advantages to Moscow in the pact are in­ disputable. So long as Germa ny is occupied on the Western front, the Soviet Union feels much more free in the Far E ast. This doesn' t mean that offensive operations will be launched there. It is true that the J ap anese oligarchy is even less c a­ p able of waging a war tha n the one in M oscow. However, compelled to face the West, Moscow cannot have the slight­ est motive for expanding in Asia. Jap an, for her part, must consider that she could expect a serious and even annihilating resistance from the U SSR. Under these conditions Tokyo must prefer the p rogram of her navy - an offensive not to the West but to the South, toward the Philippines, Dutch East Indies, Borneo, French Indochina, British Burma . . . . An agreement between Moscow and Tokyo on this b asis would constitute a symmetrical supplement to the p act between Moscow and 1 18 Writings of Leon Trotsky (1939-40) Berlin. The question as to how this would influence the situ­ ation of the United States does not enter into the scope of this article.

BM-2cW67GEKkHGonXKZLCzouLLxnLym3azS8r
Sep 26 13:32 [raw]

January 1940: Now the. Comintern is silent about Czechoslovakia, supports the division of Poland, b ut demands the liberation of India. The Moscow Pravda attacks the suppression of liberties in Canada b ut is silent about the bloody executions of Czechs by Hitler and the tortures of Polish Jews. All this means that the Kremlin still has a high appraisal of Germany's strength. And the Kremlin is right. Germ any h ap pened to be, it is true, incap able of launching a "lightning" war against France and Great Britain - but not a single serious person believed in such a p ossibility. H owever, the international propaganda wh ich tries to picture Hitler as a lunatic driven up a blind alley is extremely lightm inded. Hitler is still far from that. Dynamic industry, tech nical genius, the spirit of discipline ­ all this is present; the formidable Germa n military m achine will yet reveal itself. At stake is the fate of the country and the regime. The Polish. government and the Czechoslov akian semigovern­ ment are now in France. Who knows whether the French gov­ ernment will not have to seek refuge in Great Britain together with the Belgian, Dutch, Polish, and Czechoslovakian go vern­ ments? I do not believe for a moment, as I have stated, in the actual realization of Hitler' s plans concerning a Pax Ger­ manica - that is, world dom ination. German imperialism ar­ rived too l ate; its military fury will end in a tremendous ca­ tastrophe. But before that catastrophe o ccurs many things will topple in Europe. Stalin doesn't want to be among them. Above all, he safeguards himself from breaking with Hitler too soon.

BM-2cTaRF4nbj4ByCTH13SUMouK8nHXBLaLmS
Oct 21 21:53 [raw]

Stalin Yeah !  nuke them all BM-2cTaRF4nbj4ByCTH13SUMouK8nHXBLaLmS by Duke Nukem   ------------------------------------------------------ Germany obviously pushed Moscow against Finland. Each step Moscow takes westward brings closer the involvement of the Soviet Union in the war. If this objective were gained, the world situation would change considerably. The Near and Middle East would become the arena of the war. The ques­ tion of India would arise at once. Hitler would breathe with relief and, in case of an unfavorable turn of events, gain the possibility of concluding p ea ce at the expense of the Soviet Union. Moscow undoubtedly gnashed its teeth upon reading the friendly articles in the German press. But gnashing one' s teeth is not a p olitical factor. The p act rem ains in force. And Stalin remains Hitler's satellite. The immediate advantages to Moscow in the pact are in­ disputable. So long as Germa ny is occupied on the Western front, the Soviet Union feels much more free in the Far E ast. This doesn' t mean that offensive operations will be launched there. It is true that the J ap anese oligarchy is even less c a­ p able of waging a war tha n the one in M oscow. However, compelled to face the West, Moscow cannot have the slight­ est motive for expanding in Asia. Jap an, for her part, must consider that she could expect a serious and even annihilating resistance from the U SSR. Under these conditions Tokyo must prefer the p rogram of her navy - an offensive not to the West but to the South, toward the Philippines, Dutch East Indies, Borneo, French Indochina, British Burma . . . . An agreement between Moscow and Tokyo on this b asis would constitute a symmetrical supplement to the p act between Moscow and 1 18 Writings of Leon Trotsky (1939-40) Berlin. The question as to how this would influence the situ­ ation of the United States does not enter into the scope of this article.

[chan] general
BM-2cW67GEKkHGonXKZLCzouLLxnLym3azS8r

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